Saturday afternoon, September 9, 2017
Ryan Stinnett, Meteorologist
THE REST OF WEEKEND: We have no issues in our weather today as we are maintaining nearly cloud-free skies, but you may notice breezier conditions. Temperatures are in the 70s and 80s this afternoon, and for the most part a very nice Saturday, with those breezy east winds at 10-20 mph. We stay dry today, tonight, and tomorrow, but clouds begin to increase through the day tomorrow from the south, and winds are going to be higher as well.
HURRICANE IRMA: Latest update on Irma, at 200 PM EDT, the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by radar near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 80.2 West. Irma is moving just north of due west along the north coast of Cuba at near 9 mph. A northwest motion is expected to begin later today with a turn toward the north-northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to move near or over the north coast of Cuba this afternoon, and will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning. The hurricane is expected to move along or near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves away from Cuba, and Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida. A NOAA plane is airborne en route to investigate Irma. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches).
The terrain of Cuba has impacted the hurricane tremendously. But model output suggest rapid intensification this evening and overnight as storm moves north away from Cuba towards the Florida Keys, and is expected to make landfall as a CAT 4 storm late Sunday in SW Florida. Irma will then track north along or very near the west coast of Florida into Monday. The entire peninsula of Florida will have impacts from Irma, and in many locations, devastating impacts, especially from the Keys all the way up the western coast.
ALABAMA IMPACTS: As the storm tracks north into southwestern Georgia, it will begin to impact Alabama. Monday, especially Monday night, and Tuesday will be the active days for Alabama as sustained northerly winds will be 25-45 mph with higher gusts perhaps as high as 60 mph. It will be rainy at times with 1-3 inches of rain possible, but flooding is not expected. Better news, the center of circulation will be east of Alabama, which means no tornado threat for us. We are just going to deal with very windy and wet conditions, and yes we will likely see tree and power line issues. The farther east you are (closer to Georgia) the greater your impacts from the storm. Tropical storm watches are already in effect for the Wiregrass counties of Southeast Alabama.
AFTER IRMA: We will keep the chance of scattered showers in the forecast for Wednesday, but heading through the rest of the week, we will see more sun and warmer temperatures for the second half of the week. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s, while lows will remain in those 60s.
HURRICANE JOSE: At 200 PM AST, the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 61.9 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph. A continued northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will continue to pass north of the northern Leeward Islands through this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected to occur over the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).
KATIA NO MORE: At 1000 AM CDT, the remnants of Katia were located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 97.9 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Gusty winds associated with the remnants of Katia will continue to subside today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). No more advisories will be issued for the system.
THE BEGINNINGS OF LEE?: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands has become somewhat better organized today. Environmental conditions are expected to support at least some additional development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system moves generally northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 5 days...40 percent.
WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 120.2F at Makkah, Saudi Arabia. The lowest observation was -97.1F at Vostok, Antarctica.
CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: The highest observation was 110F at Death Valley, CA. The lowest observation was 29F at Grayling, MI.
WEATHER ON THIS DATE IN 1971: Hurricane Ginger formed, and remained a hurricane until the 5th of October. The 27 day life span was the longest of record for any hurricane in the North Atlantic Ocean.
BEACH FORECAST: See a detailed beach forecast here.
SEVEN DAY FORECAST: See the detailed forecast for the next seven days here.
Today's Record Temperatures